About Dr. Susmit Kumar
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar obtained his Ph.D. from Pennsylvania State University, US. Before coming to the United States, he was selected in the prestigious India Administrative Service (IAS) and did its training at the Lal Bahadur Shastri National Academy of Administration (LBSNAA), Mussoorie, India (August 1985-March 1986).
Dr. Kumar is the author of The Modernization of Islam and the Creation of a Multipolar World Order (Booksurge, January 2008). This book was an extension of his 1995 article published in Global Times, Denmark. In this article, based on the analysis of the social, political and religion environments in the Middle East, Dr. Kumar predicted the global rise of Islamic militancy due to the 1980s US intervention in Afghanistan, take over of Middle East and North African Islamic countries (including Saudi Arabia) by fundamentalist Muslims which may result in a temporary revival of Caliphate system and also its final outcome. In a 1996 article (Global Times, Denmark), he wrote, "Afghanistan was a Waterloo for the U.S.S.R. but it might become a Frankenstein for the U.S." The current rise in Islamic militancy worldwide does not reflect Samuel Huntington’s "Clash of Civilizations,” but is instead a violent prelude to the modernization of Islam, and a major step toward the integration of human civilization.
डॉक्टर सुस्मित कुमार का परिचय: हिंदी संस्करण के लिए यहाँ क्लिक करें
Dr. Kumar's Talk on His Latest Book at Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi on March 1, 2018
- Details
"India is a Country, not a Company - How Anglo-US 'Imported' Economists Misled and Mismanaged the Indian Economy", Susmit Kumar, Munshiram Manoharlal Publishers Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi, 212 Pages, 2018.
Vivekananda International Foundation (www.vifindia.org) is number one think tank in India. It was established by Retd. IAS, IFS, IPS and Army officials. People like retd-IPS Ajit Kumar Doval (National Security Advisor, India), retd-IAS Nirpendra Misra (Principle Secretary to Prime Minister), retd-IAS PK Mishra (Additional Principle Secretary to PrimeMinister), retd-IAS Anil Baijal (Lt. Governor, Delhi) and Bibek Debroy (Chairman of Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister) were among its founders.
Due to Subhas Chandra Bose’s Surrendered INA’s Actions, Britain Panicked And Decided to Leave India in A Few Months
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
This article is based on Chapter 40 of Dr Kumar’s forthcoming book Gandhi, an Obstacle for the Freedom of India, Brought Radical Mullahs into Mainstream Politics Which Finally Led to Partition of India.
Dr Kumar is posting this long article so that Prime Minister Modi can tell not only 130 crore Indians but entire world that it was Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose and his Indian National Army, not Gandhi and his Congress, who gave the independence to India. It will be the India’s biggest tribute to her greatest freedom fighter on his 125th Birth Anniversary on January 23rd.
[Note: “The Transfer of Power 1942-7, Vol. VI The Post-War Phase: New Moves by the Labour Government 1 August 1945-22 March 1946, by Nicholas Mansergh and Penderel Moon, Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, London, 1976” is based on British Government declassified documents and is frequently mentioned in this article]
Some of Chapters of forthcoming Dr. Kumar’s book can be accessed by following links:
In His 2018 Gandhi Book, Ramchandra Guha Corrupted History By Writing Bogus Facts to Defame Sardar Patel, Subhas Bose & JB Kripalani in Order To Enhance Prestige of Gandhi and Nehru
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Mr. Ramchandra Guha should feel ashamed of writing bogus facts in his 2018 Gandhi book to defame great freedom fighters like Sardar Patel, Subhas Chandra Bose and J.B. Kripalani in order to enhance the prestige of Gandhi and Nehru. He is doing nothing but corrupting the history.
Due to nearly six decades of mostly continuous rule by and massive glorification of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, “court” historians, like Ramchandra Guha, of India have corrupted the country’s history. In his book Liberty or Death: India’s Journey to Independence and Division, Patrick French has correctly written (Liberty or Death: India Journey to Independence and Division, Patrick French, Flamingo, London, 1997, pp 17-8):
“The plaster Mahatma encapsulated in Richard Attenborough’s 1982 film Gandhi is plainly inaccurate. As Salman Rushdie has written: “To make Gandhi appeal to the Western market, he had to be sanctified and turned into Christ – and odd fate for a crafty Gujarati lawyer – and the history of one of the century’s greatest’s revolutions had to be mangled.’ The film leaves us with the message ‘that the best way to gain your freedom is to line up, unarmed, and march towards your oppressors and permit them to club you to the ground; if you do this for long enough, you will embarrass them into going away. There were innumerable reasons for the British quitting India, but embarrassment was not one of them. This version of events, though, appeals not only to the Western market, but also within India, where the Congress hold on power during the decades succeeding independence had made the portrayal of a blameless and beatific father of the nation politically useful.”
Gandhi, Non-Cooperation Movement (Swaraj), Khilafat Movement and 1921 Malabar Riots
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
[Note: This article is taken from pages 51-56 of the book 1922 Gandhi and Anarchy by Chettur Sankaran Nair. It is freely available at http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/52903; Mr. Nair was 1897 Indian National Congress President and a Madras High Court Judge. You can find more about Mr. Nair from his Wikipedia page. A 2020 version reprint of book is also available at Amazon.com. It is worth noting that Mr. Nair was also from Malabar region.]
MALABAR'S AGONY
By Annie Besant
It would be well if Mr. Gandhi could be taken into Malabar to see with his own eyes the ghastly horrors which have been created by the preaching of himself and his "loved brothers," Muhommad and Shaukat Ali. The Khilafat Raj is established there; on August 1, 1921, sharp to the date first announced by Mr. Gandhi for the beginning of Swaraj and the vanishing of British Rule, a Police Inspector was surrounded by Moplas, revolting against that Rule. [bold is by author] From that date onwards thousands of the forbidden war-knives ware secretly made and hidden away, and on August 20, the rebellion broke out, Khilafat flags were hoisted on Police Stations and Government offices. Strangely enough it was on August 25th 825 A.D. that Cherman Perumal ascended the throne of Malabar, the first Zamorin, and from that day the Malayalam Era is dated that is still in use; thus for 1096 years a Zamorin has ruled in Calicut, and the Rajas are mostly Chiefs who for long centuries have looked to a Zamorin as their feudatory Head. These are the men on whom the true pacification of Malabar must ultimately depend. The crowded refugees will only return to their devastated homes when they see those once more in safety in their ancestral places. Their lands, which they keep under their own control, are largely cultivated by Moplas, who are normally hardy, industrious agricultural labourers.
Gandhi Collected Crores of Rupees by Claiming He Would Get Swaraj in One Year in 1921
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
[Note: This article is taken from pages 33-35 of the book 1922 Gandhi and Anarchy by Chettur Sankaran Nair. It is freely available at http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/52903; Mr. Nair was 1897 Indian National Congress President and a Madras High Court Judge. You can find more about Mr. Nair from his Wikipedia page. A 2020 version reprint of book is also available at Amazon.com.]
It is an irony that in 1921 when average salary of a postman and a labourer were 7 rupee per month and 2 rupee per month, respectively, Gandhi collected crores of rupees in just one year in the name of getting 'Swaraj' in one year from his failed Non-Cooperation movement. Every top Congress leader knew beforehand that Gandhi’s Non-cooperation proposal was of no use but still Gandhi was able to enforce it on Congress by using fundamentalist Islamist Khilafat members.(please my article read: Gandhi “Used” the Islamic Fundamentalist Votes to Capture Congress Party in 1920 and Became Its Dictator by Changing Its Constitution) which also resulted in exponential rise in communal riots all over the country and finally division of the country in 1947. It is worth noting that after the fiasco of his Non-Cooperation Movement in 1922, Gandhi took sanyas from politics for six years and joined active politics again only in 1928.
On 29th December, 1920, i.e. three months after the Non-Cooperation programme, Gandhi said,
"My experience during the last months fills me with the hope that within the nine months that remain of the year in which I have expected Swaraj for India we shall redress the two wrongs and we shall see Swaraj (Parliamentary) established in accordance with the wishes of the people of India."
In 1929 Gandhi “Adopted” Jawaharlal Nehru to Stop Himself Being Sidelined In Congress by Left-Wingers
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Gandhi anointed Jawaharlal Nehru as his heir in 1941. In 1946, despite Nehru not getting even a single vote in the 1946 Congress Presidential election, Gandhi made him the Congress President asking the winner, Sardar Patel, who had received 12 out of maximum possible 15 votes to nominate Nehru as the President. Nehru went on to become India’s First Prime Minister as the Viceroy was going to invite the then Congress President to take the oath as the India’s First Prime Minister.
There were two factors behind Gandhi’s choice of Jawaharlal as his heir. Firstly, Gandhi has a soft corner for the Nehru family as it was Motilal Nehru’s volt face during the Subjects Committee vote in the 1920 Special Congress Committee Meeting in Calcutta which saved Gandhi’s Non-Cooperation proposal. It is worth noting that Gandhi's motion was carried by a small majority of only twelve votes, 144 voting for and 132 against in the Subjects Committee. Only after a proposal cleared the Subjects Committee it would go to the General Voting. Motilal Nehru's defection may well have swung the UP delegation in favor of Gandhi. To a large extent, Nehru depended upon Muslim political support, and was widely known for his pro-Muslim sympathies. As an Urdu-speaking Kashmiri Brahmin, he had voted with the Muslims for the UP Municipalities Bill in 1916 and he had kept clear of the agitation against it which the Hindu Sabha and the Provincial Congress launched. When Nehru saw how strongly Muslims supported non-cooperation in 1920, he may have been persuaded to tolerate the movement against his better judgement. But his decision rested, ultimately, upon more rational considerations than his wish to curry Muslim favor.[i]
Gandhi “Used” the Islamic Fundamentalist Votes to Capture Congress Party in 1920 and Became Its Dictator by Changing Its Constitution
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Gandhi knew it would not be easy to capture the Congress and bend it to his will. The Congress met in August 1918 at a special session in Bombay to consider the proposals for reforms as contained in the Montagu-Chelmsford Report published in the previous month. To all except Gandhi the report seemed to promise less than expected. Gandhi, who in less than a year was to lead the nation against the British Raj, felt quite contented with the proposals which he thought, ‘gave India as much as she could chew’. But Gandhi was ignored and a suggestion that he be made the President of the special session of Congress was instantly dismissed by Mrs. Annie Besant on the grounds that he was not a politician. [i]
This also became apparent to him when the meeting of the All-India Congress Committee (AICC) at Banaras in May 1920 did not entertain a proposal for adopting a policy of non-cooperation and decided to call a special session of the Congress to consider Gandhi’s program.[ii] A large number of Muslims attended the session and it looked like a Muslim session. Jinnah was shouted down by the Ali brothers, among others.[iii] Gandhi had the backing of the delegates from the South and the Muslim delegates. In fact, all the Muslim members of the Subjects Committee except Jinnah supported the main resolution. [iv] Apart from this, Gandhi also lured Congress members by claiming the Swaraj in one year which we would see was not possible even after more than twenty-five years.
Mahatma Gandhi Started the 1942 Quit India Movement Only Because He Feared that the Liberation of India by the Indian National Army, Created & Supported by Japan, Might Reduce Him to a Footnote in History (British Govt Archive)
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
[Note: This paper is an extension of my paper Hitler, NOT Gandhi, Should Be Given Credit for the Independence of India in 1947, which is the most popular paper at my website. A few years ago, this paper was used “AS IS” in the history examination paper at GCE/GCSE level for Edexcel, a product of Pearson Education Limited in UK.]
Mahatma Gandhi launched the 1942 Quit India Movement only because he was afraid that Indian National Army (INA), created and supported by Japanese army (which had already won Burma at that time), would liberate India from British rule. (As per British intelligence report) Gandhi’s feeling during mid-1942 was that Germany and Japan would win World War II, which would have made his name a footnote in India’s history as till then he had always hushed down any talk of independence within his Congress party. In fact the whole thought and background of Gandhi's draft of the 1942 Quit India Movement was one of favouring Japan.
After Signing Defense Treaty, US Needs to Provide Military Assets, under a WWII-type Lend-Lease Act, to India to Oust China from Occupied Ladakh Land
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
One version of this paper is published at South Asia Monitor on July 26, 2020 – here is the link
India should sign a defence treaty with US
During the first half of the last century, Nazi leader Hitler wanted to create the Third Reich, a super colonial power, which would rule over the world for a thousand years. But it lasted only for thirteen years because Hitler was trying to turn back the clock as colonialism was in its last phase. Instead of creating a super colonial power, Hitler destroyed colonialism. Following World War II, within a few decades nearly all colonies in Asia and Africa obtained their independence. After WWII and the ensuing Cold War, neither US-led Western countries nor the Soviet Union occupied any landmass to rule. Instead they opted for local puppets, at times installed by military means, as rulers.
Xi Jinping is both a Hitler and a Stalin in Making
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Xi Jinping is both a Stalin and a Hitler in the making. In China, the repression in Xinjiang and elsewhere in the country can be said to be Stalin-like behavior. Under Xi Jinping, China has already committed Hitler's Nazi Germany-like crimes (annexation of Czechoslovakia and then Poland) by grabbing the entire South China Sea and now land in Ladakh from India. Hence, the world powers will be in their rights to declared a war against it. In 2016, the Philippines already won a case against China against Nine-Dash-Line in arbitral tribunal constituted under Annex VII to the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Part II Let Galwan Valley Attack be the Operation Barbarossa for China
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
[Note: Operation Barbarossa was the code name for the ill-fated 1941 Hitler’s invasion of the Soviet Union which ultimately led to collapse of his Third Reich. During Operation Barbarossa Soviet Union was devastated, but India will not suffer to that extent in a protracted war because China will not be interested in occupying vast geographical areas which was the aim of Hitler's Third Reich in Soviet Union.]
This paper is in continuation of my June 21, 2020 paper Let Galwan Valley Attack be the Operation Barbarossa for China
As China is clearly the aggressor, her actions will give a chance to the US and the Western countries to impose economic sanctions for the next several decades to set back the Chinese economy. For mishandling of the Coronavirus pandemic by the Chinese government, some top US officials and Republican Senators have talked about cancelling part of its debt obligations to China (The Finance 202: Trump officials spook economists with talk of skipping debt payments to China, Tory Newmyer, The Washington Post, May 1, 2020). A war between the US and China will give them an opportunity to cancel those debts and seize Chinese assets, globally as enemy property, especially the massive trillion dollar One Belt One Road (OBOR) investment, similar to what the Allied Powers did to Hitler's Germany post World War II. It will be China's folly to fight a protracted war with both India and the US because a defeated China might result in independent countries like Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. In a protracted war, Vietnam, Japan and Taiwan might also jump in against China.
Let Galwan Valley Attack be the Operation Barbarossa for China
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
[Note: Operation Barbarossa was the code name for the ill-fated 1941 Hitler’s invasion of the Soviet Union which ultimately led to collapse of his Third Reich. During Operation Barbarossa Soviet Union was devastated, but India will not suffer to that extent in a protracted war because China will not be interested in occupying vast geographical areas which was the aim of Hitler's Third Reich in Soviet Union.]
Right now, China is in a similar situation as Hitler’s Germany in the late 1930s, while the US is in a similar situation as the declining British and French Empires. Recently, China has occupied a few square kilometers of India’s land in Ladakh. Despite having no legal basis of historic rights over the South China Sea (Nine-Dash Line, Wikipedia), China has been able to build artificial islands and get hold of nearly the entire South China Sea as none of its neighbors is in a position to confront China militarily.
PM Modi needs to talk to top US military officials and not just President Trump, because President Trump’s words alone have no meaning. It will be in the interest of the US and other Western countries to not let India down against China because if India goes down against China, China will be an unstoppable military power not only in Asia but in the entire world as the US is now a declining power and not in position to take down China on its own.
IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva Says – Tax the Wealthy Which Majority of Americans Also Approve of
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
(A) Let us take some real-life examples:
1. For thousands of years, the Brahmaputra river has been the lifeline for the Bangladesh and North-east India. Nearly the entire catchment area of the river lies in China whereas India and Bangladesh get all the water. Now China has been building dams in the catchment area of this river to divert the flow to its massive desert. As the economies of several Northeastern Indian states and Bangladesh are dependent on the Brahmaputra river, it is certain that India and Bangladesh would take China to an international tribunal to force China to share the water.
2. After the 1964 Nuclear Test, China came up with a (crazy) idea of making a hole in Himalayas by detonating nuclear bombs to suck monsoon rain into to China (I read it when I was in high school during early 1970s in one of India’s news magazines). If they can make a hole in Himalayas to suck monsoon rain, it will make India’s Gangetic plain desert.
Part I Free Market Economics vs Keynesian – Two Lost Decades of Japan
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
[Note: When at one extreme we have the US whose economy works on “Ponzi Scheme” (i.e. it just prints papers (i.e. its currency) to funds its twin – budget and trade – deficits and then gets the same printed papers back as investment) and at other extreme China which is under-selling other countries by heavily subsidizing manufactured goods, “Free Market Economics” can never work at such a large geographical (, i.e. international) level.]
If economists claim that “Free Market economics” work, then why do they tinker with a free market and force country like Japan to sign the 1985 Plaza Accord? The US was taking care of Japan’s defense and hence Japan and other countries had to sign the accord, which led to the destruction of Japanese economy and salvation of US economy. If they would not have signed the Plaza Accord, the US dollar and US economy would have been history in the mid-1980s even before the fall of the Soviet Union!!! If Crude Oil prices would not have had collapsed in 1988 (after the end of Iran-Iraq War), then USSR would have still been here! The USSR collapsed because the crude price collapsed from $70 a barrel (at one point of time in mid-1980s) to upper one digit after the end of Iraq-Iran War. It is worth noting that even CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) of US had not predicted the collapse of Soviet Union. China can do the same with US right now, i.e. China can destroy the US dollar and the US economy whenever it wants (as per the 2009 Pentagon Economic Warfare Simulation).
China Has Capability to Make US a Weimar Republic
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
1. Introduction
In 2009, Pentagon for the first time conducted series of economic war game exercises. In each exercise, the US consistently lost to China. According to Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, which analyzes Treasury financing trends (“U.S. Debt Expected To Soar This Year,” Lori Montgomery, Washington Post, January 3, 2009):
While the current market for [US] Treasuries is booming, it’s unclear whether demand for debt can be sustained. There’s a time bomb somewhere, but we don’t know exactly where on the calendar it’s planted.
The US is the Titanic of the present time and age, due to go down sooner than later. China has the time bomb to destroy the US dollar and US economy. It is up to China to fix the date to detonate it. The US President Trump, with a five-year-old child brain, has given a wakeup call to China to hasten the process to take over the rein of lone superpower status from the US.
Part III Coronavirus - US Fed for Keeping US Treasury Interest Payment Low – Reason Behind Stock Market Bubble and World-Wide Inequality
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
1. Introduction
In this paper, we will see that the US Federal Bank has been committing fraud, not only with the common Americans but with the people of the entire world and with entire global economy. By systematically reducing interest rates to enable the US government to pile on debt, it created not only stock market bubbles world-wide but also unprecedented wealth inequality globally by transferring massive amount of money to ultra-rich from all others. Without it the so-called bogus-economic theory Reaganomics would not have been in the dictionary at all. During the 2008 financial crisis, US Fed deemed Wall Street banks and other big financial institutions “too big to fail.” Now it has granted the same elite status to a significant swath of the American private sector after the crisis unleashed by the pandemic.
Part II Coronavirus – In 2016, I Advised the Modi Administration to Have Trade Balance At the Earliest
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
In my last week paper Coronavirus - India’s $40 Billion Spending vs Trillions by China, Germany, Japan and US - Part I, I explained why India is able to come up with only up to $40 - $60 billion stimulus as compared to several trillions by four economic superpowers, namely the US, Japan, China and Germany to mitigate the effects of Coronavirus on their economies. Recently, Dr Abhijit Banerjee, the Indian-born Nobel prize winner on economy, asked the Modi government for stimulus to the level of the US stimulus (India should put in large enough stimulus package to revive demand: Abhijit Banerjee, Economics Times, May 6, 2020). It is worth noting that Indian stimulus is about only 1% of its GDP whereas right now the US stimulus is 10% of its GDP, and also US can spend as much as it wants as discussed in my above paper without thinking about any repercussion on its currency and also on its economy. To overcome the devastating effects of 2008 Great Recession which caused massive NPAs resulting in insolvency of large banks like Citibank, the US Federal Reserve had to provide $29 trillion (twice of then US GDP) to large banks, to save the US economy from the collapse ($29,000,000,000,000: A Detailed Look at the Fed’s Bailout by Funding Facility and Recipient, Working Paper No. 698, James Andrew Felkerson, University of Missouri–Kansas City, December 2011).
Part I Coronavirus - India’s $40 Billion Spending vs Trillions by China, Germany, Japan and US
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
1. Introduction
Due to Coronavirus, all the countries are experiencing economic hardship which eventually will surpass the hardship witnessed by the world, mainly Western countries, during 1930s Great Depression. To mitigate the economic crisis, India is being able to come up with $30-$40 billion only, whereas the four economic superpowers, namely the US, China, Japan and Germany, have been spending trillions of dollars in stimulus. Experts are predicting that Coronavirus would ravage the global economy until its vaccine is developed. While therapeutic treatments for those sick with COVID-19 could begin to roll out within four to six months, it would likely take at least 18 months to develop a safe and effective vaccine.” (Bill Gates on a coronavirus vaccine: The major issue is time, Aarthi Swaminathan and Michael B. Kelley, Yahoo News, April 13, 2020).
Dr Kumar on CNBC-Awaaz Panel Discussion on May 17, 2016
- Details
Pradeep Pandya (of CNBC-Awaaz): "Dr Kumar [description of Yuan replacing US dollar as global currency] is long term trend and is very strong, but people are not aware of it. We talk to several financial people/traders every day, but not even one percent of them are aware of it. In the long-term, it is going to play the major role." He made this comment at 13:54 minute in the video below:
Round-Table discussion on “Reason behind Islamic Terrorism and when and how it would end” by Dr. Susmit Kumar on May 24, 2016 at Society for Policy Studies, New Delhi, India
- Details
The Society for Policy Studies (New Delhi, India) organized a Round-Table discussion on the theme, “Reason behind Islamic Terrorism and when and how it would end” at the India International Centre on May 24, 2016. Addressing a gathering of domain experts and thought leaders who maintain a keen interest in the theme and allied concerns, this informal conversation was led by Dr. Susmit Kumar, President, Kumar Consultancy, US.
Dr Susmit Kumar's Contribution on Triumph of Import Substitution Policy over Export Oriented Policy in India
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
[Note: Dr. Kumar’s every paper is sent to 1500+ people in India which includes PM Mr. Modi, Prime Minister Office (PMO), several Cabinet ministers in India, Secretaries (IAS) and Additional Secretaries (IAS), 200+ officers at Niti Aayog, professors at IIMs, IITs and premier Indian universities, and fellows at several Indian think tanks.]
The US-based economists would generally preach you to earn money by doing dirty jobs (i.e. to produce consumer items which requires low wages) of the Western countries, mainly of the US. But India has all the required ingredients, like technical and natural resources to make herself an economic superpower without being an exporting country. Niti Aayog’s policy paper of E-vehicles only after 2030 is a major step towards it by replacing the crude oil import, the costliest item among its imports, with its substitute (please read my paper: Niti Aayog's New Electric Vehicle Policy – Implementation of Dr Susmit Kumar's April 2017 Recommendation, June 29, 2019).
Till recently, India’s economic policy, under both the NDA and UPA governments, was to emulate China’s export-oriented policy in order to become an economic superpower. But due to Dr Susmit Kumar’s sustained efforts, India’s economic policy has now become import substitution, i.e. to use its own resources, both technological and scientific as well as natural resources, to make the country an economic powerhouse. This change is evident in the recent speech of Professor Arvind Panagariya, a professor of economics at Columbia University (US), while delivering the keynote address at a panel discussion on ‘Economic Priorities for the New Government’ of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in New York, US (Export-led growth very critical for good jobs in India: Arvind Panagariya, PTI/The Indian Express, June 25, 2019):
India's Niti Aayog's New Electric Vehicle Policy – Implementation of Dr Susmit Kumar's April 2017 Recommendation
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
NITI Aayog has recently proposed that only electric vehicles should be sold after 2030. It has also suggested that the ministry pilots an e-highways programme - with an overhead electricity network - to enable plying of trucks and buses on select National Highways (Niti’s new road map: Only electric vehicles to be sold after 2030, Deepak K Dash, The Times of India, June 17, 2019).
Niti Aayog’s New Electric Vehicle Policy is being touted as Clean Fuel technology use for the clean air. But actually it is a major step towards achieving trade surplus because India cannot even dream of becoming an economic superpower without having trade surplus for at least a decade and a half to accumulate couple of trillions of dollars as FOREX (FOReign EXchange Reserve). This was a major recommendation by Dr Kumar in his 2017 papers (“India, China and Growth Rate,” April 16, 2107; Trade Deficit and India’s Missing USD 1.5 Trillion FOREX, August 11, 2017) and also in his book "India is a Country, not a Company - How Anglo-US 'Imported' Economists Misled and Mismanaged the Indian Economy", Susmit Kumar, Munshiram Manoharlal Publishers Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi, 2018. It is worth noting that crude oil import is the costliest item among India’s regular imports. Normally the crude oil import bill is about $130 billion a year, but when the crude oil price rises above $80 a gallon in the global market, this crude oil import bill goes as high as $200+ billion a year, resulting in sharp devaluation of rupee.
US-based Economists Should Stop Interference in Indian Economic Policy Formulation
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Here are points which are discussed in this paper:
· Recent statements by Raghuram Rajan and Kaushik Basu have prompted me to write this paper to show how the US-based economists have been implementing in India the disastrous economic policy, called “Reaganomics” which is the reason behind the dismal job growth in India. There is no doubt that they are brilliant people and being an Indian-origin person, I feel very proud of their achievements in US. But they should stop giving media interviews in India because Indians consider them to be brilliants who would do wonder for the country but Indians do not know how disastrous policies they are preaching.
· If Mr. Rajan becomes the Finance Minister after the 2019 General Elections, there would not be any economy left in India at the end of his five years tenure due to his massive privatization of government jobs and the 2024 General Elections would result in an Indian-version of Trump, like Akhilesh Yadav, Tejashwi Yadav or Mayawati, taking over the rein at the center.
· Under “Reaganomics” implemented since 1980s, there has been massive loss of middle-class jobs in the US which resulted in the early 1990s recession. The US was able to come out of the recession mainly due to the advent of internet technology, which also caused the tech bubble in economy leading to economic boom in late 1990s. After the bust of the tech bubble, the US economy boomed due to the infamous housing bubble that collapsed in 2008. Since then the US economy has survived by holding onto its rock bottom interest rate, which has caused a tremendous asset bubble. The US has been able to survive since the late 1990s mainly because it has been able to print its currency, which happens to be the global currency, to fund tech bubble, housing bubble and Fed’s rock bottom interest rate. As India cannot print its currency to do the same, unless she makes drastic changes in her economic policies, India’s economy is doomed.
US-based Economists Knowingly Propagate Disastrous Economic Policies
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
All the top US-based economists and management professors are no doubt brilliants and they know that US economy is heading to disaster. But they do not want to accept it publicly. These people are just propagating disastrous economic theory which is ultimately leading the US to decades of severe economic depression. If they would tell the truth or deviate from the disastrous US economic policy, they will be nowhere in the US.
Every economist and MBA knows the name of Warren Buffet – please read below what he said in 2005 – I have another article, published on editorial page from New York Times in 2005. Within 3 years of Warren Buffet’s statement, the US had 2008 Great Recession and since then it is just surviving on zero interest rate of the US Fed.
Stock Market Bubble - US Fed and US Treasury Debt
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
The charts and table below would show you where the stock market heading to. The US government has been running budget deficits for last 3 decades. In the aftermath of the 2008 Great Recession, both the Bush, Jr. and Obama administrations ran huge budget deficits to provide stimulus (as shown in Chart 1). Afterwards, the yearly budget deficit gradually went down but still it was more than $500 billion a year. Trump’s tax-cut to rich has ballooned the budget deficit to $1.3 trillion this year and it would be above $1 trillion for next several years.
Next Chief Economic Advisor should not be a US-based Economist
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
The Modi administration should not choose another US-based economist as next Chief Economic Advisor (CEA). It is true that the education system in the US is far superior than that of India. There is no doubt that the US-based “imported” economists and management professors are brilliants and they are capable to guide Indian economy better than the most of their counter parts, barring few, in India.
In China, Liu He, a US-educated economist, is believed to be one of the primary architects of Chinese economic policy since late 2000s (please read Wikipedia page on him: Liu He). During 1990s, he studied at Seton Hall University (New Jersey, US) and then at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, US. But throughout his entire life he has worked in China (please read: Biography of Liu He).
2009 Pentagon Economic Warfare Simulation - China Won Without Reaching for A Gun
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
President Trump has started a trade war between US and China. Prior to him, no US administration even talked about it because top policymakers have known for a long time that the US cannot win a trade war with China. Mr. Trump thinks that he is a genius who does not need any advice. If Mr. Trump escalates the trade war with China to a level of do or die, China may take extreme step of destroying the US dollar and the US economy by dumping its massive US investments, although it would have severe damage to the Chinese economy also. China would make its currency Yuan as the global currency, replacing the US dollar. It would put the death knell to the US economy as the country would face several decades of massive economic depression (please see my paper: Part IV – US Bogus Market-Driven Economy and RBI’s Functional Autonomy).
Stop Tax-cut Fueled Consumer Driven Economy which has led the US on the Brink of Impending Bankruptcy
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Published at South Asia Monitor on March 3, 2017.
Modi government needs to stop listening to the US educated economists’ mantra of trickle down economy, i.e. to use tax-cuts to fuel consumer driven economy. The same mantra has led the US on the brink of impending bankruptcy. It should not increase the income tax exemption limit from 2.5 lac rupees, instead it should use the collected tax wisely to come out of perennial trade deficit and also to directly target the economy of the bottom 80 percent of population who have been largely left out of the economic boom.
China, US-Based ‘Imported’ Economists and Bhisma Pitamah of Mahabharat
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
[In both my books - “Casino Capitalism” (2012) and “The Modernization of Islam and the Creation of a Multipolar World Order” (2008) - I predicted, based on extensive analysis of global economic data, sudden collapse of the US economy, similar to the Soviet Union collapse in 1991. It is worth noting that even CIA had not predicted the 1991 collapse of Soviet Union.]
China has multi-prong strategy to make its yuan as the global currency (leading global reserve currency), replacing the US dollar. Please read my article - China Does Not Care For US Credit Rating Agencies – about some of these strategies.
India Needs An “Indian” Economic Policy
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
As discussed in my article Modi, the Best PM, India Has Ever Had, but He Needs to Stop Viewing India from the Prism of Gujarat, Mr. Modi is the best Prime Minister, India has ever had. I will never doubt his sincerity and zeal to make a difference in the lives of ordinary people in India. Despite providing corruption-free government and tremendous efforts by the Modi government to uplift the lives of all the Indians, BJP lost three major states in the heartland of India in the recent state elections, mainly due to not creating sufficient number of (middle class) jobs since the NDA government took over in Delhi in 2014. Mr. Modi and his party are reaping the fruits of the poisonous tree planted by the UPA government. It was the UPA government which started the tradition of bringing the US-based Indian-origin economists, starting with Kaushik Basu as Chief Economic Advisor (2009-2012), to formulate the Indian economic policy. There is no doubt that the US-based “imported” economists and management professors are brilliants but as pointed out in my several papers, these “imported” economists have been knowingly implementing the disastrous economic US policy, known as “Reaganomics” which has bankrupted the US (please read my paper: US-based Economists Knowingly Propagate Disastrous Economic Policies).
The Modi Administration Needs to Stop Shareholder First Policy to Save India from Disaster
- Details
Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
As discussed in this paper, the Modi administration needs to stop the shareholder first policy, the prime accused in the impending collapse of the US economy, to save the Indian economy from disaster. As discussed in my several papers, the US economy is surviving for the last three decades mainly by printing its currency, which happens to be the global currency, to fund its twin deficits – trade deficit and budget deficits. Once China would replace the US dollar with its own currency as global currency, the US economy would be in great depression for decades (please read my paper: Part IV – US Bogus Market-Driven Economy and RBI’s Functional Autonomy). The shareholder first policy is responsible for the transfer of massive amount of money to the ultra-rich from all others (please see Chart 5 in the same paper).
Let us first discuss some examples:
(1) China getting hold of the entire South China Sea:
Chinese claims in the South China Sea are delineated in part by the nine-dash line. It was originally an "eleven-dashed-line," first indicated by the Kuomintang government of the Republic of China in 1947, for its claims to the South China Sea. The Communist Party of China took over mainland China and formed the People's Republic of China in 1949 the line was adopted and revised to nine dashes/dots, as endorsed by Zhou Enlai. The legacy of the nine-dash line is viewed by some PRC government officials, and by the PRC military, as providing historical support for their claims to the South China Sea (Territorial disputes in the South China Sea, Wikipedia).
The Nine-Dash Line—at various times also referred to as the "10-dash line" and the "11-dash line"—refers to the undefined, vaguely located, demarcation line used initially by the Republic of China (1912–1949) and subsequently the governments of the Republic of China (ROC / Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC), for their claims of the major part of the South China Sea (Nine-Dash Line, Wikipedia).
On 12 July 2016, an arbitration tribunal constituted under Annex VII to the 1982 United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea ruled that China has no legal basis to claim "historic rights" within its nine-dash line in a case brought by the Philippines. The tribunal judged that there was no evidence that China had historically exercised exclusive control over the waters or resources within the Nine-Dash Line. The ruling was rejected by both Taiwan and China.
Despite having no historical rights over the entire South China Sea, China has been able to get control of nearly entire South China Sea by building artificial islands (China’s Sea Control Is a Done Deal, ‘Short of War With the U.S.’, New York Times)
(2) Nearly the entire catchment area of Brahmaputra river lies in China whereas India and Bangladesh get all the water. Now China has been building dams in the catchment area of this river to divert the flow to its massive desert. As the economies of several Northeastern Indian states and Bangladesh are dependent on this river, it is certain that India and Bangladesh would take China to an international tribunal to force China to share the water.
The situation with the utilization of the water of the Brahmaputra river bears similarity to the change in the modus operandi of sharing of a firm’s profit since, say, the 1970s. These days rather than saving its money to grow the business or increasing the employee’s wages, companies return whatever money it has made as profits to its owners, or shareholders. A company can do this in two ways: by paying dividends or by buying back its stock. What is less well-known, however, is that a relatively small group of large U.S. blue chips — companies including Coca-Cola, McDonalds and IBM — has substantially increased the amount of cash it has returned to shareholders. In 2007, before the financial crisis, U.S. companies returned $673 billion in cash to shareholders, which represented 90 percent of aggregate corporate earnings. That’s a mind-boggling amount of money. About three-quarters of this amount is attributable to a small set of very large companies, which increasingly dominate the distribution of earnings and payouts.[i]
To “maximize” a company’s share price has no foundation in history or in law. Nor is there any empirical evidence that it makes the economy or the society better off. What began in the 1970s and ’80s as a useful corrective to self-satisfied managerial mediocrity has become a corrupting, self-interested dogma peddled by finance professors, money managers and over-compensated corporate executives. One can argue that much of what Americans perceive to be wrong with the economy these days — the slow growth and rising inequality; the recurring scandals; the wild swings from boom to bust; the inadequate investment in R&D, worker training and public goods — has its roots in this ideology.[ii]
The change can be seen in statements from IBM’s leaders over the years. Thomas J. Watson Jr., son of the company’s founder, IBM’s president and CEO, published a seminal text in 1963 called “A Business and Its Beliefs: The Ideas that Helped Build IBM.” In it, he wrote that IBM’s philosophy could be contained in three beliefs: One, the most important, was respect for the individual employee; the second, a commitment to customer service; and third, achieving excellence. He wrote that balancing profits between the well-being of employees and the nation’s interest is a necessary duty for companies. Watson took pride in the fact that his father avoided layoffs, even through the Great Depression. “We acknowledge our obligation as a business institution to help improve the quality of the society we are part of,” read the text of IBM’s corporate values. Under Watson’s watch, IBM introduced groundbreaking computers that shot his father’s company to the top of the technology world. On the other hand in 2013 the then chief executive Virginia Rometty had pledged to follow a plan called the “2015 Road Map” in which the primary goal is to dramatically raise the company’s earnings-per-share figure, a metric favored by Wall Street. [iii]
Similar was the perspective of Owen Young, who was CEO of GE almost straight through from 1922 to 1945: “Stockholders are confined to a maximum return equivalent to a risk premium. The remaining profit stays in the enterprise, is paid out in higher wages, or is passed on to the customer.” On the other hand Jack Welch, CEO from 1981 to 2001, believed in “the shareholder as king—the residual claimant, entitled to the [whole] pot of earnings.” [iv]
Since the World War II and till early 1970s, all the stakeholders (customers, employees, suppliers, shareholders and community) were nearly treated equally by the CEOs. With boards heavily stacked with insiders and salaries and cash bonuses the sole source of executive compensation, there was no linkage between changes in stock price and changes in executive pay. In 1970, for example, stock-based compensation represented less than 1% of CEO remuneration.[v]
(Please click here to download entire 16 page Chapter 15 " Shareholder First – Reason for US Economic Disaster", in pdf, from the book India Is a Country, Not a Company: How Anglo-US ‘Imported’ Economists Misled & Mismanaged Indian Economy, Susmit Kumar, Munshiram Manoharlal Publishers Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi, 2018, pp 69-84. The 16 page chapter has a lot of data and discussion on this topic.)
[i]“Corporate America Is Enriching Shareholders at the Expense of the Economy,” Douglas Skinner, July 15, 2014, Fivethirtyeight.com, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/corporate-america-is-enriching-shareholders-at-the-expense-of-the-economy/
[ii] “How the cult of shareholder value wrecked American business,” Steven Pearlstein, The Washington Post, September 9, 2013.
[iii] “Maximizing shareholder value: The goal that changed corporate America,” Jia Lynn Yang, Washington Post. August 26, 2013.
[iv] “Frenzied Financialization,” Michael Konczal, Washington Monthly, November/December 2014.
[v]“Maximizing Shareholder Value May Have Gone Too Far,” Peter Atwater, Time, June 3, 2016.
