Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.

[Note: Operation Barbarossa was the code name for the ill-fated 1941 Hitler’s invasion of the Soviet Union which ultimately led to collapse of his Third Reich. During Operation Barbarossa Soviet Union was devastated, but India will not suffer to that extent in a protracted war because China will not be interested in occupying vast geographical areas which was the aim of Hitler's Third Reich in Soviet Union.]

Right now, China is in a similar situation as Hitler’s Germany in the late 1930s, while the US is in a similar situation as the declining British and French Empires. Recently, China has occupied a few square kilometers of India’s land in Ladakh. Despite having no legal basis of historic rights over the South China Sea (Nine-Dash Line, Wikipedia), China has been able to build artificial islands and get hold of nearly the entire South China Sea as none of its neighbors is in a position to confront China militarily.

 

PM Modi needs to talk to top US military officials and not just President Trump, because President Trump’s words alone have no meaning. It will be in the interest of the US and other Western countries to not let India down against China because if India goes down against China, China will be an unstoppable military power not only in Asia but in the entire world as the US is now a declining power and not in position to take down China on its own.

 

India should talk to the US for assistance in the matter of China as the US is right now in a mood to stop China from claiming the superpower status. If India grabs some Chinese land on the vast border, China would either seek the bargaining table or retaliation, otherwise it will lose its face which will certainly lead to a wider war. As the US these days always has a couple of Aircraft Carriers stationed nearby China’s artificially created islands in South China Sea, China will think twice before going full force with India. I still remember when then US President Nixon sent the US Seventh Fleet towards India during the 1971 Indo-Pak War. If there is a war between India and China, Trump will certainly take the plunge against China to boost his election chances as right now his poll numbers are way behind his Democratic Party rival Joe Biden. China will not get a friendly person in the US even if Biden wins in the next November Presidential election, as per him the Chinese president is a thug (The Great Decoupling? What’s Next for U.S.-China Rift, Brendan Murray, Bloomberg, June 19, 2020)

 

As China is clearly the aggressor, it will give a chance to the US and the Western countries to impose economic sanctions for the next several decades to set back the Chinese economy. For mishandling of Coronavirus pandemic by the Chinese government, some top US officials and Republican Senators have talked about cancelling part of its debt obligations to China (The Finance 202: Trump officials spook economists with talk of skipping debt payments to China, Tory Newmyer, The Washington Post, May 1, 2020). A war between the US and China will give them an opportunity to cancel those debts and seize Chinese assets, especially massive One Belt One Road (OBOR) investment, globally as enemy property, similar to what the Allied Powers did with Hitler's Germany after the end of World War II. It will be foolishness for China to fight a protracted war with both India and the US because a defeated China might result in independent countries like Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. In a protracted war, Vietnam, Japan and Taiwan might also jump in against China.

 

From the Indian point of view although this war will take a heavy economic toll, it will drastically reduce the defense expenditure for next several decades as after the collapse of Chinese army, Pakistan's all-weather friend, Pakistan will not be in position to threaten India the way, they have been doing for last several decades. Also, one after another, neighboring countries of India are falling into China camp. This month Nepal, the only Hindu country in the world, has now become anti-India and pro-China. Three of India's neighbors, namely Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal, are now in China's camp. After the withdrawal of the US army, it is just matter of time that Taliban, with the help of Pakistani Army would take over in Afghanistan; Bangladesh, a Muslim majority country, is pro-India only till  Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of the country's founder Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, is the president. Maldives is also not a permanent ally of India. Hence it is better for India to talk to the US for the final solution of China. The Modi administration needs to convince President Trump about the war with China by not only to stop claiming the superpower status but will be beneficial from economic point of view as the despite two massive stimulus packages by the Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR) administration, the US economic came out of the economic depression only after the massive expenditure for the World War II. 

 

Russia will avoid taking part in this war because it is also vulnerable to rising China. A major confrontation may arise in Far East Russia, where Russia has a sparse and declining population. Although area-wise it is one-third of Russia, its seven million people are only 5 percent of Russia’s population, and just across the border there are three Chinese provinces with one hundred million people. Russians started leaving this area for better living conditions after the social welfare system collapsed following the Soviet Union’s breakup. As a result, farmers, factory owners, as well as administrative officials have been inviting Chinese workers from across the border to fill empty job spots. About 250,000 Chinese live there now. In a couple of decades, they will become the predominant ethnic group in the area. If the situation remains the same, China may want to possess the mineral-rich Russian Far East in the future.

 

During the war, India may also use massive GPS spoofing to protect its strategic assets like the President, Prime Minister, Army/Navy/Air installations and ammunition depots, as these days many missiles use the GPS system. Russia apply GPS spoofing on a massive scale to protect President Putin (Study maps 'extensive Russian GPS spoofing', BBC, April 2, 2019). In certain areas of central Moscow, mostly within sight of the Kremlin walls, satellite signals were scrambled. Instead of showing true locations, people's phones were showing them almost 20 miles away at Vnukovo airport (Getting lost near the Kremlin? Russia could be 'GPS spoofing', CNN, Clare Sebastian, December 2, 2016).

 

Here is my July 20, 2017 article on the similar issue:

http://www.susmitkumar.net/index.php/47-uncategorised/198-like-lal-bahadur-shastri-modi-should-go-for-full-scale-war-if-attacked-locally-by-china

 

Like Lal Bahadur Shastri, Modi Should Go for Full Scale War If Attacked Locally by China

 

There are reports that China has been amassing a large military force in South Tibet because of the tri-junction (where borders of India, Bhutan and China meet) border dispute with India. After winning the undeclared war with its neighbors and the US in South China Sea, following the construction of several illegal artificial islands as military bases, China is trying to intimidate India. With the world’s third largest defense forces, India is the only Asian country capable of standing before China. It is in the best interest of the US and its Western allies as well as of East Asian countries, to support India in all possible ways against China because this war would have profound consequences on containing the Chinese belligerence against its neighbors. If the coming India-China war ends in stalemate, like the 1979 Vietnam-China War, it will give a big blow to China’s world super power effort.

After Vietnam’s invasion and occupation of Cambodia in 1978, which ended the rule of the Chinese-backed Khmer Rouge, China invaded Vietnam in 1979 to teach Vietnam a lesson. Despite China’s superior army on paper, the war ended in stalemate. After the 1979 Vietnam War, China has not fought any war. On the other hand, the Indian army has been fighting the un-declared war in Jammu & Kashmir with Pakistan for the last three decades, hence India’s army is battle-tested and ready to fight any war.

(The following paragraphs are from the book "Casino Capitalism," Susmit Kumar, iUniverse, 2012, pp. 231-4)

China has built massive infrastructure along its India border for quick troop mobilization, whereas India has most of these infrastructure plans only on paper until the Modi administration took over in 2014. After taking the reins, the Modi administration has started working on these infrastructural plans on war footing. China has constructed huge blue-roofed all-weather buildings to house its hundreds of its soldiers during winter. Without any provocative episode or infrastructure built up by India in these sparsely populated areas, the massive infrastructure built by China in a very short duration points to some ulterior motive.

...China may take an adventure in grabbing some of the sparsely populated disputed areas from India. India, an emerging economic and military superpower, is the only country that can match Chinese firepower in Asia. By defeating India, China will try to send a message to its neighboring countries and the Western powers, especially to the United States, that they will have to play according to the rules dictated by China.

India is not able to win a localized war in these areas. Hence it would be in the interest of India to widen the war by taking the fight to the Chinese mainland, much in the same way as India’s then prime minister, Lal Bahadur Shastri, did during the 1965 India-Pakistan war. Shastri decided to invade Pakistan all along the India-Pakistan border when he realized that India could not win a localized war in Kashmir. Although India cannot win the war by taking it to the Chinese mainland, it will leave scars in both China and India. Although this war will be a short one, it will result in the deaths of tens of thousands, maybe more, in both countries. Deaths of this many people in mainland China will cause a serious crisis, as the Chinese will blame their own government for these deaths. On the other hand, if the war ends in a stalemate, the Indians will see themselves and their government as victims and blame China for the numerous deaths in India. Apart from this, any Indian governing political party will not want to be identified as a loser in an Indo-China war, as they then will be out of power for several decades. Therefore, it is in the best interest of India to send signals to China at every international forum that in any attack in disputed areas, it will widen the war and take it to mainland China. This will make China think twice before it decides to initiate any adventure against India in disputed areas.