Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.

[Note: Operation Barbarossa was the code name for the ill-fated 1941 Hitler’s invasion of the Soviet Union which ultimately led to collapse of his Third Reich. During Operation Barbarossa Soviet Union was devastated, but India will not suffer to that extent in a protracted war because China will not be interested in occupying vast geographical areas which was the aim of Hitler's Third Reich in Soviet Union.]

This paper is in continuation of my June 21, 2020 paper Let Galwan Valley Attack be the Operation Barbarossa for China

 

As China is clearly the aggressor, her actions will give a chance to the US and the Western countries to impose economic sanctions for the next several decades to set back the Chinese economy. For mishandling of the Coronavirus pandemic by the Chinese government, some top US officials and Republican Senators have talked about cancelling part of its debt obligations to China (The Finance 202: Trump officials spook economists with talk of skipping debt payments to China, Tory Newmyer, The Washington Post, May 1, 2020). A war between the US and China will give them an opportunity to cancel those debts and seize Chinese assets, globally as enemy property, especially the massive trillion dollar One Belt One Road (OBOR) investment, similar to what the Allied Powers did to Hitler's Germany post World War II. It will be China's folly to fight a protracted war with both India and the US because a defeated China might result in independent countries like Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. In a protracted war, Vietnam, Japan and Taiwan might also jump in against China.


From India's point of view, although this war will take a heavy economic toll, it will drastically reduce the defense expenditure for the next several decades as after the collapse of the Chinese army, Pakistan's all-weather friend, Pakistan will no more be in the position to threaten India in the way they have been doing for the last several decades. Also, the neighboring countries of India are falling into the China camp one after another. This month Nepal, the only Hindu country in the world, has now become anti-India and pro-China. Three of India's neighbors, namely Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal, are now in China's camp. After the withdrawal of the US army, it is just matter of time that Taliban, with the help of Pakistani Army would take over Afghanistan. Bangladesh, a Muslim majority country, is pro-India only as long as Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of the country's founder Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, is the president. The Maldives is also not a permanent ally of India.

 

In addition, countries like Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and West European countries would certainly like to contribute financially towards India’s war efforts against China. They, too, would like to stop China’s unjust bullying towards its neighbors in the same way as they funded the US war against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 1991. For the 1991 War, the US received from Kuwait - $16 billion, Saudi Arabia - $16.8 billion, Japan - $10 billion, Germany - $6.4 billion, United Arab Emirates - $4 billion and South Korea - $251 million. The US was able to use its massive arms and ammunitions against Iraq, and in order to replenish its armed forces a lot of jobs were created in the defense industry. This huge foreign funding helped the US in jump-starting its economy which was in recession at that time. As shown in Chart below, 1991 was the only year when the US had a positive Balance of Payment (BOP) for the last 50 years. Therefore, Japan and Taiwan would certainly give hundreds of billions of dollars to India to fight the war against China.

 

Countries like Taiwan and Japan will not only provide $100s of billion to India (in the same way as Middle Eastern countries, West Europeans and Japan funded $100 billion US War against Saddam Hussein's Iraq in 1991), the US and other Western countries will also provide their latest arms and ammunitions free of cost to India (in the same way as they gave them to Britain and the Soviet Union to fight the Nazi during the World War II) and also the manpower to operate them to finish China once for all.

 

Chart – US Balance of Payment

 

 

 

Hence it is better for India to talk to the US for the final solution of China. The Modi administration needs to convince President Trump about the war with China by not only for stop claiming the superpower status but by pointing out its economic benefits as well. During the 1930s Great Depression, too, the economy had temporarily improved because of two stimulus packages provided by the Roosevelt administration. US unemployment was 25 percent in 1933 and 15 percent in 1940 measured by the fact that in those days only one person in the family used to work. The real numbers were actually much higher reckoned by present standards. Mass unemployment in the United States ended only after the outbreak of World War II, when the US economy started to churn out arms and armaments initially for the European allies and later for its own country as well. Right now the US economic is in similar situation, i.e. even after two massive stimulus packages, a total of $6 trillion (The U.S. has thrown more than $6 trillion at the coronavirus crisis. That number could grow, Andrew Van Dam, The Washington Post, April 15, 2020) the economy is still in dire condition.