IMF (I'M Finished) - Run by Wall Street "Vultures"
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Dr. Susmit Kumar
If a country goes to the IMF in case of a FOREX crisis, the IMF, mainly manned by the US Treasury Department, forces the country to pay the loaners' full amount. After watching IMF at work during the 1997 East Asia Economic Crisis, Joseph E. Stiglitz, the 2001 winner of the Nobel Prize in economics and chief economist at the World Bank from 1996 to 1999, wrote:
I was chief economist at the World Bank from 1996 until last November, during the gravest global economic crisis in a half-century. I saw how the IMF, in tandem with the US Treasury Department, responded. And I was appalled.[i]
The IMF may not have become the bill collector of the G-7, but it clearly worked hard (though not always successfully) to make sure that the G-7 lenders got repaid.”[ii]
It was perhaps he who described the crisis best: [iii]
Part I - Argentina and RBI’s Functional Autonomy
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Table of Contents
(A) Introduction
(B) Mr. Viral Acharya’s Eight Paragraphs on Argentina’s Central Bank Crisis
(C) Pre-1998 Argentina’s Economy
(D) 1998-2002 Argentine Great Recession
(E) Kirchners’ Era – from Recovery to Prosperity (2003-15)
(F) Post-Kirchner Era (2015-) – Another Failed Market-oriented Economy
(G) Details of Vulture Investors’ Case in a New York (US) Court
(A) Introduction:
Part IV – US Bogus Market-Driven Economy and RBI’s Functional Autonomy
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Table of Contents
(A) Introduction
(B) US Dollar Ponzi Scheme - Biggest Financial Fraud in Post-World War II Era
(C) US is Surviving Mainly Due to the “Dollar Ponzi Scheme”
(D) US Economy (World War II – 1960s)
(E) 1970s US Economy
(F) 1980s US Economic Crisis, 1985 Plaza Accord and Japan’s Lost Decades of 1990s and 2000s
(G) 1990s US Economy
(H) 2000-2007 US Economy
(I) 2008 US Housing Bubble Collapse
(J) US Economy Since 2009
(K) Future of US – 1990s Russian Economy
(A) Introduction
In this paper, we will see that the US economic boom from World War II (WWII) to 1960s was mainly due to the massive expenditure in defense industry to fight the WWII. Then in order to survive, the US reneged on its 1944 Bretton Woods promise to keep its currency pegged to the gold price, paving the “Dollar Ponzi Scheme” in which the US gets most of its currency back (in the form of foreign investments in US Treasury Bills, US real estate and US share markets) which it again uses as payment to the entire world. Since 1980s the US economy is surviving mainly due to this Ponzi Scheme, not because of any so-called “Market-Driven” economic policy.
US Banks’ NPA and RBI’s Functional Autonomy
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Introductory note: I have explained the 2008 US Housing Bubble Crisis in details in my previous two papers: Stop giving any consideration to Privatization and Consolidation of Public Sector Banks: Needs cleansing and overhaul of the entire financial system and Part IV – US Bogus Market-Driven Economy and RBI’s Functional Autonomy). The US Federal Reserve has functional independency which Mr Viral Acharya, the Deputy Governor of RBI, wants for RBI, US Federal Reserve does not regulate or supervise the financial institutions and in any crisis, it, along with Wall Street bankers and their co-conspirators in US Government, makes sure that investors/bankers do not lose any money and they do not care for the common people at all.
Even after a decade of the 2008 US Mortgage Crisis, the big banks like Citibank hide trillions and trillions of dollars of “toxic” assets with the help of the US Federal Reserve and corrupt politicians. At the onset of the 2008 mortgage crisis, several large banks, including Citibank, were insolvent.
London Model – A Wrong Choice for India’s Public Transport Infrastructure
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
The Modi administration choice for London model for India’s public transport infrastructure is a wrong choice. As per Nitin Gadkari, Union minister for Road Transport & Highways, Shipping and Water Resources, River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation, the London model of transportation system, in which 17 private operators offer services, does not require investment and is a professional one and can offer solutions for frequent traffic jams, pollution and accidents in India (India's public transport infra to be developed on London model: Gadkari, The Tribune, January 31, 2019).
To Survive, PM Modi Should Take A Page from Indira Gandhi’s Book (Part I & Part II)
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
[Note: Immediately after BJP barely won the majority in Dec 2017 state elections in Gujarat, where Mr. Modi ruled for 12 years before taking over as the Prime Minister in 2014, this two part article was sent on Jan 26, 2018 to 1500+ people in India, which included PM Modi, Prime Minister Office (PMO), several Cabinet Ministers, Several Secretaries & Joint Secretaries, IFS officials at Ministry of External Affairs, 200+ officers at Niti Aayog, Professors at IIMs, IITs and premier universities in India, and fellows at think tanks in India.]
In December 2017 Gujarat elections, BJP, with 99 seats (against 115 in 2012 elections), was fortunate to win the majority of seats as it won 16 seats from the Congress Party, which won 77 seats, by less than 3,000 votes or less (Gujarat election: 16 Congress candidates lost by less than 3,000 votes, Hindustan Times/PTI, December 19, 2017). Had those seats gone to the Congress Party instead, giving Congress the majority, it would have been a disaster for Mr. Modi and BJP. Although there was a slight increase in vote percentage for the BJP against the 2012 elections, the party suffered a net loss of seats due to a steep decline in BJP votes in rural areas where people revolted against nearly two decades of Modinomics that has largely bypassed the rural areas.
The Functional Autonomy of RBI and FDI
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
There is a fundamental difference between the US economy and the Indian economy. The US economy cannot survive without foreign investment whereas the Indian economy can. As the US economy is surviving mainly on massive foreign investment, US-based Indian economists such as Mr. Viral Acharya give too much importance to the investors (Government interference undermines RBI’s functional autonomy: Viral Acharya, The Economic Times, Oct 27, 2018). In the last 15 years, the US has received nearly $1 trillion foreign investment a year to fund its twin deficits – budget and trade deficits (please see Table 1 in my paper Part IV – US Bogus Market-Driven Economy and RBI’s Functional Autonomy). Without this much of foreign investment, the interest rate in US would skyrocket, which would cause a meltdown of the economy. It is worth noting that most of the Chinese $3.2 trillion FOREX is in US investment.
For Bihar Development Sake Bodh Gaya Should be made Union Territory for Say 99 years
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
During the 15 years (1990-2005) of misrule under Laloo Yadav’s Family, the development of Bihar nose-dived, mainly because of lack of law and order. During the same period, the Southern states like Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka became the information technology (IT) centers in India. Since 1990s, IT sector is the main driving force behind the economic growth in the country. Even after JD(U) and BJP combine won two consecutive general elections in the state (2005 and 2010), Bihar was not able to get any IT firm to open their branches to provide jobs, mainly because of threat of Laloo Yadav’s family coming to power again. Unless a business sees stability for next 25 to 30 years, it is not going invest in the state. For at least next 30 to 40 years, I do not see businesses investing in Bihar.
For the sake of development of Bihar, Bihar should give Bodh Gaya and its surroundings, say in 20 miles to 30 miles radius, to the Central government to manage it as Union Territory (UT) for say 99 years, with the following conditions:
Gujarat’s Economy – A Microcosm of What Ails the US Economy
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
A politician’s job is to win elections, and after winning elections it is duty of his advisors to guide him in running the government. As discussed in my article Modi, the Best PM, India Has Ever Had, but He Needs to Stop Viewing India from the Prism of Gujarat, Mr Modi is the best Prime Minister, India has ever had. I will never doubt his sincerity and zeal to make a difference in the lives of ordinary people in India. But he is not getting good advice on the economic front. As discussed in my aforementioned article, Mr Modi needs to get out of his Gujarat-development mindset to come up with economic policies that would result in job-growth also along with the GDP growth.
As shown in charts 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 below, the economy of Gujarat displays the same defects as the US economy. As discussed in the December 10, 2017 Hindustan Times news report quoted in Chart 1, despite increasing shares of both manufacturing output in the national economy and productivity, wages are lagging in Gujarat. The average productivity of a worker in a Gujarat factory – 1.8 times the all-India average. But the average factory wages in the state are less than the national average and among the lowest when compared to similarly developed states. On the other hand, Gujarat’s share in national manufacturing output was 18.5% in 2014-15, up from 13.8% in 2000-01. But the state’s share in the national manufacturing workforce, at 10.3%, is proportionately much lower and hasn’t changed much during the period. It indicates that growth was mostly driven by capital-intensive industries that created fewer jobs. India, the second most populous country in the world, needs more and more jobs along with the GDP growth.
As shown in Charts 2 and 3, the US wage as a percent of the GDP is at the lowest since 1940s whereas the corporate profit as percent of the GDP is the highest in the same period, i.e. workers are not benefiting from the increasing corporate profit. Except Chart 1, all other Charts are from my forthcoming book "India is a Country, not a Company - How Anglo-US 'Imported' Economists Misled and Mismanaged the Indian Economy" (out in a month). The book has 66 charts and tables to analyze the Indian, US, Chinese and global economies.
Modi, the Best PM, India Has Ever Had, but He Needs to Stop Viewing India from the Prism of Gujarat
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
The present economic superpowers, apart from the US, China, Japan and Germany, have not become strong by following the US economic policies. Instead, they came up with their own economic policies to get to the economic superpower level. After passing the bachelor examination, without hard labor/study, dedication and good planning for a significant period one cannot get selected in the India Administrative Service (IAS). Similarly a country needs the same to become a superpower. Till now situation in India has been like a student who is just scrapping through the college examinations. India is in urgent need of a leader like Deng Xiaoping who can come up with a plan to take the country to its proper place, i.e. a superpower level in the world.
Trade Deficit and India’s Missing USD 1.5 Trillion FOREX
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
China and India launched economic liberalization about the same time in the early 1990s, but whereas China is now the global economic leader India is nowhere. During these years, India have run trade deficits year after year whereas China had trade surpluses, enabling it to amass four trillion dollars of FOREX (FOReign EXchange), making it the undisputed country to replace the US as the world’s number one economic superpower. Yes, the growth rate of India in the last couple of years is the highest in the world but it is vulnerable to economic collapse, due to an economic crisis resulting from generating trade deficits year on year. Without trade surplus, India cannot even dream of becoming a super-power, and in the last 30 years trade surplus was not a priority of any Indian administration.
Like Lal Bahadur Shastri, Modi Should Go For Full Scale War If Attacked Locally by China
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
There are reports that China has been amassing a large military force in South Tibet because of the tri-junction (where borders of India, Bhutan and China meet) border dispute with India. After winning the undeclared war with its neighbors and the US in South China Sea, after building several illegal artificial islands as military bases, China is trying to intimidate India. India is the only Asian country, with its world’s third largest defense forces, capable to stand before China. It is in the best interest of the US and its Western allies as well as of East Asian countries, to support India, in all possible ways, against China because this war would have profound consequences on containing the Chinese belligerence against its neighbors. If the coming India-China war ends in stalemate, like the 1979 Vietnam-China War, it will give a big blow to China’s claim of super-power status.
Whose $1 Trillion China is Spending on One Belt One Road (OBOR)?
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Under the OBOR (One Belt One Road) project, China is planning to spend more than $1 trillion to reshape the global economy. The question is whose $1 trillion China has been spending so far in making countries all over the world like colonies of the East India Company, by providing them loans which they would not be able to payback at all. Sri Lanka is already in China’s debt trap not being able to pay an $8 billion infrastructure loan from China. Sri Lanka's debt situation is severe. The country is currently in $58.3 billion deep to foreign financiers. 95.4% of all government revenue is currently going towards paying back loans. Out of every one hundred dollars the government brings in, only $4.60 is going towards essentials like education and public services (“China Tells Sri Lanka: We Want Our Money, Not Your Empty Airport”, Wade Shepard, www.forbes.com, July 31, 2016). Still China is willing to give another $24 billion to Sri Lanka as a part of OBOR ('China willing to give Sri Lanka $ 24 billion more as part of OBOR', PTI, May 17, 2017).
Niti Aayog: Why does it need new direction and a new leadership?
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
By watching the grand show of China’s OBOR (One Belt One Road) Summit, attended by 65 countries, including US and Japan, all Indians are feeling dejected. This is one more step taken by China in its goal to replace the US as the super-power. Both China and India started the economic liberalization nearly at the same time in the early 1990s, but China is now the global economic leader whereas India is nowhere in the global economy. Since 1990s, India have run trade deficits year after year whereas China had trade surpluses, enabling it to amass four trillion dollar FOREX (FOReign EXchange), making it the undisputed country to replace the US as the world’s number one economic superpower. Hence, Indians have to blame the economists and the political leaders who depended on the former, for letdown.
In recent years, India has been boasting about its economic growth rate, projecting it to be the highest in the world, surpassing that of China. All over the world economists are predicting that India’s growth rate would now surpass that of China, resulting in India’s GDP to be the second largest in the world by 2040, behind China and surpassing the US. Indians use this data as a ticket to super-power status. But there is a fundamental difference between the growth rates of India and China. Behind India’s phenomenal growth rate, the country has trade deficit year on year for more than two decades whereas China has trade surplus in the same period. History has shown us that the Indian economy has the potential to collapse if subjected to an economic crisis whereas the Chinese economy can withstand it. In the recent three years, our trade deficit with China has been increasing as usual year after year like the US trade deficit with China. As explained in my two articles Is "Make In India" Theme Helping Indian Economy? - Part I and Is "Make In India" Theme Helping Indian Economy? – Part II, the Niti Aayog and also the “Make-in-India” policy of the Modi government have no significant positive bearing on India’s trade deficit.
Niti Aayog Is Missing Its Number One Priority – Trade Balance and Self-Sufficiency of Essential Mass Consumption Items - Part II
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Please click here for its Part I: Niti Aayog Is Missing Its Number One Objective – Trade Balance and Self-Sufficiency of Essential Mass Consumption Items - Part I
As I have written in my recent articles, even before thinking to become a super-power, a country needs to generate trade surplus, which the US did for more than 30 years after World War II, China since early 2000s, and both Japan and Germany in recent decades. The last two countries are economic super-powers but are too small to be military super-powers. Without having trade surplus and becoming self-sufficient in essential mass consumer items, India has no hope of becoming a super-power. Please read my article for details: Is "Make In India" Theme Helping Indian Economy? – Part II
Two Competing Models in the Global Economy
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
The two tables and six charts shown below prove which economic model India should follow, either:
- The US economic model that lost millions of jobs related to
- a decrease of nearly 35% (from 14.2% in 2000 to 9.3% in 2008) of the world export market in just eight years (thereafter it is hovering around 9%) and also
- the goods for its own consumption corresponding to record increase in trade deficit since mid 1990s (as shown in Chart 1), or
- The Chinese, 3.7% in 2000 to 8.4% in 2008, a 127% increase, and the German which has kept a steady percentage despite the rise of the global Chinese workshop.
Niti Aayog Is Missing Its Number One Objective – Trade Balance and Self-Sufficiency of Essential Mass Consumption Items - Part I
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Development, without the aim of “Trade Balance” and “Self-sufficiency of Essential Mass Consumer Items” (to insulate its economy from factors, beyond its control) has no meaning. Time and again the history of global economy has shown that a FOREX (FOReign EXchange) crisis can bring down a country’s entire economy, within few months, for years to come. Unless the Indian economy achieves “Trade Balance” and “Self-sufficiency of Essential Mass Consumer Items,” it will be always vulnerable to collapse due to factors beyond its control. Niti Aayog needs to modify all their three recently approved key documents for the country - 5-year vision, 7-year strategy and 3-year action plan - and have these two as their top priorities/objectives.
India, China and Growth Rate
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
In last couple of years, India is boasting about its highest economic growth rate in the world, surpassing that of China. Economists world-wide are predicting that India’s growth rate would surpass that of China now onwards, resulting in India’s GDP to be second largest in the world by 2040, behind China and surpassing the US. Indians use this data as a ticket to the super-power status. But there is a fundamental difference between the growth rates of India and China. Behind its exemplary growth rate, India has trade deficit every year in last more than two decades whereas China has trade surplus in the same period. As history has shown us, Indian economy has potential to collapse in an economic crisis whereas Chinese economy can withstand it.
Narendra Modi, Indira Gandhi and Economy
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
After his party’s resounding victory in the recent assembly elections, PM Modi is now considered to be India’s third mass leader after Jawahar Lal Nehru and Indira Gandhi. PM Modi talked in his victory speech about a “New India’ which he sees as the India of the dreams of the youth, that fulfills the aspirations of women, and provides opportunities for the poor. We see a parallel between PM Modi’s “New India” slogan and Indira Gandhi’s “Garibi Hatao” slogan which she gave during late 1960s and early 1970s.
Is "Make In India" Theme Helping Indian Economy? – Part II
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Please click here for its Part I - Is "Make In India" Theme Helping Indian Economy?-Part I
As shown in Charts 1 to 8, India’s foreign trade is following in the footsteps of that of the US, a bankrupt country surviving on printing its currency which happens to be the global currency. As explained in Part I of this article series, before even thinking to become a super-power, a country needs to generate a trade surplus, which the US did for more than 30 years after World War II, China since early 2000s (Chart 6, 7 and 8), and both Japan (Chart 4) and Germany (Chart 5) in recent decades. The last two countries are economic super-powers but are too small to be military super-powers.
Is "Make In India" Theme Helping Indian Economy? - Part I
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Before even thinking to become a super-power, a country needs to have trade surplus, which the US had for more than 30 years after World War II, China since early 2000s, and both Germany and Japan for last several decades. The last two countries are economic super-powers but are too small to be military super-powers.
Dr. Kumar's Past Presentations
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International Studies Association (ISA) South 2012 Annual Conference, Atlanta, Georgia, October 12-14, 2012.
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2012 Annual Meeting of the Georgia Political Science Association (GPSA), Savannah, Georgia, November 9-10, 2012.
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Third Annual Middle East Dialogue (DOMES), Washington D.C., February 21, 2013.
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International Studies Association (ISA) ISSS-ISAC Joint Annual Conference, George Washington University, Washington D.C., October 4-6, 2013.
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Western Political Science Association (WPSA) Annual Meeting, Seattle, Washington, April 17-19, 2014.
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International Studies Association (ISA) West 2014 Annual Conference, Pasadena, California, September 27-28, 2014.
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International Studies Association (ISA) South 2014 Annual Conference, Richmond, Virginia, October 25-26, 2014.
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International Studies Association (ISA) Midwest 2014 Annual Conference, St. Louis, Missouri, November 7-9, 2014.
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"Global Islamic Fundamentalism" - Annual Middle East Dialogue (DOMES), Washington D.C., February 26, 2015.
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(i) ISIS Crisis - A Panel Discussion, (ii) Arab Spring and Modernization of Islam - A Paper Presentation, 2015 Annual Meeting of the Southwestern Social Science Association, Denver, Colorado, April 8-11, 2015.
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"Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, to be Devoured by their Frankensteins, IS and Taliban" - Annual Middle East Dialogue (DOMES), Washington D.C., February 26, 2016.
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"Modernization of Islam and Unification of Human Civilization" - The Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, Indian Ministry of Defence institution, New Delhi, India, March 31, 2016.
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“Reason behind Islamic Terrorism and when and how it would end” by Dr. Susmit Kumar, Society for Policy Studies, New Delhi, India, May 24, 2016.
Dr Kumar's Presentations
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Dr. Kumar's Press Interviews:
Dr. Kumar's presentation at 2015 Middle East Dialogues Conference, held in Washington DC (his presentation is after 50:00 minutes in video below) :
Dr. Kumar's presentations on Youtube:
(1) Please click here to view "Islamic Militancy, Islamic Empire and Modernization of Islam" Youtube video presentation.
(2) Please click here to view "Karma, Mind and Quest for Happiness" Youtube video presentation.
Dr. Kumar's latest publication: "The Arab Spring and modernization of Islam: A major step towards the unification of human civilization," in Modern East: Conflict & Reforms, Edited by Mohammed M. Aman and Mary Jo Aman, Westphalia Press, Washington DC, 2014, pp 71-113. Please click here to download the paper . Please click here to buy the book.
Dr. Kumar's coming presentations:
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Western Political Science Association (WPSA) Annual Meeting, Seattle, Washington, April 17-19, 2014.
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International Studies Association (ISA) West 2014 Annual Conference, Pasadena, California, September 27-28, 2014.
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International Studies Association (ISA) South 2014 Annual Conference, Richmond, Virginia, October 25-26, 2014.
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International Studies Association (ISA) Midwest 2014 Annual Conference, St. Louis, Missouri, November 7-9, 2014.
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"Global Islamic Fundamentalism" - Annual Middle East Dialogue (DOMES), Washington D.C., February 26, 2015.
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(i) ISIS Crisis - A Panel Discussion, (ii) Arab Spring and Modernization of Islam - A Paper Presentation, 2015 Annual Meeting of the Southwestern Social Science Association, Denver, Colorado, April 8-11, 2015.
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"Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, to be Devoured by their Frankensteins, IS and Taliban" - Annual Middle East Dialogue (DOMES), Washington D.C., February 26, 2016.
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"Modernization of Islam and Unification of Human Civilization" - The Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, Indian Ministry of Defence institution, New Delhi, India, March 31, 2016.
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“Reason behind Islamic Terrorism and when and how it would end” by Dr. Susmit Kumar, Society for Policy Studies, New Delhi, India, May 24, 2016.
Please click here to see Dr. Kumar's past presentations
Book Review:
Giving * * * * * out of 5, ForeWord Clarion Reviews commented on Dr. Susmit Kumar's Casino Capitalism book (2012): "Frighteningly thought-provoking ... easily understood ... the Occupy Wall Street crowd will find vindication in this book." Please click here to read the entire review.
Trickle Down Economic Policy would not work for India Part II
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
The US educated economists think that trickle-down economy is the best - i.e. tax cuts, mainly to rich would create jobs as they would invest in creating new firms and technologies. But it is completely bogus theory. Let us consider following three cases – if you give one crore rupee to:
The Hidden Cost of Imported Items and The Need to Redefine Modi Administration’s “Make in India” Policy
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
If you live in India and purchase a "Made in China" commodity instead of "Made-in-India" commodity, then your home country loses not only a factory job but also indirectly associated jobs such as in schools, hospitals, and auto sector. Instead your purchase of the imported commodity creates such lost jobs in China.
There are two major hidden costs to India when you buy an imported item.
Unlike Demonetization, the Action against Benami Property would bring a Windfall for Government
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Dr. Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
The demonetization action taken by the Modi government may not have yielded significant windfall for the government, but the action against benami property, to be taken next, may yield a windfall for the government.
Arthakranti will make rich richer at the expense of poor and bankrupt India
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
After proclamation of demonetization, Arthakranti proponents have been claiming that the government has taken the demonetization step due to the Arthakranti proposals. It is a wrong claim. The demonetization step taken by Prime Minister Modi has nothing to do with Arthakranti. In the early 1970s, the Wanchoo committee on black money had recommended withdrawing high value banknotes. Although the then Indira Gandhi administration did not implement the findings of the Wanchoo committee report, Morarji Desai government withdrew Rs 1,000, Rs 5,000 and Rs 10,000 notes from circulation in 1978. The present NDA government has no plan to implement the two percent bank cash transaction tax, after eliminating all present taxes except import duties, which is the very fundamental of Arthakranti.
Dissolve Pakistan, a greater evil than ISIS
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Russia, US and other Western countries have been bombing to destroy ISIS. They need to realize that Pakistan’s army and its ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan’s equivalent of the CIA) are bigger threats, to the world, than ISIS, as they have been sponsoring terrorism globally. In majority of attacks world-wide, terrorists are linked with Pakistan; some of the examples are - Spain (2004 Madrid train bombing), Denmark (2007 and 2010 Copenhagen terror plot), UK (2004 London Fertilizer bomb plot, 2005 London train bombings), US (9/11 attacks in 2001, 2001 Shoe bomber, 2006 Seattle Jewish Federation shooting, 2015 San Bernardino attack, 2016 New York Bombing), France (2012 Toulouse and Montauban shootings), Indonesia (2002 Bali bombings, 2003 Marriott Hotel bombing), China (several 2011 Xinjiang attacks), Saudi Arabia (2016 Madina, Jeddah and Qatif bombings), and also all the terrorist attacks in India and Afghanistan. Top al Qaeda leaders, like Osama bin Laden, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Ramzi bin al-Shibh, Abu Zubaydah, Abu Laith al Libi and Sheikh Said Masri were either killed or captured in Pakistan.
Present Islamic Terrorism is Just the Trailer of a Grisly Movie, Yet to Come
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Since September 11, 2001, suicide attacks, using passenger airlines, in US, the Islamic terrorism has been increasing over the time. In the beginning, terrorist attacks world-wide were attributed to Islamic militants, trained in Afghanistan and Pakistan which were considered as their breeding ground. But now several regions in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region, like Iraq, Syria, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen, have joined the list. Apart from this, lone-wolf attacks in Western Europe, the US and countries like Australia, have been increasing in number.
Modi Government Should Thank Low Crude Oil Price, Not RBI Governor Rajan, For Stable Rupee
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Published at South Asia Monitor on August 9, 2016.
After the onslaught of criticism by Subramanium Swamy, Raghuram Rajan decided not to pursue the second term as RBI Governor due to not getting enough political support. This led to the US economic media to write the obituary for the rupee and Indian economy. Nearly all of them were giving Rajan the credit for the stability of rupee during his RBI tenure after the turbulent 2011-13 period which saw drastic devaluation in rupee. But the truth is that rupee is stable mainly due to the drastic drop in global crude price.
Chinese yuan replacing US dollar as global currency: A not so distant prospect
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Published at South Asia Monitor on May 1, 2016.
During World War II, only the US and UK deliberated about the future of global economy, culminating into the 1944 Bretton Woods Accord. At that time, entire Europe was under Hitler and countries like India and China did not have any economy to have a say in the Accord. Under British Plan, which was rejected, there would have been one Global Currency (say Bancor) manage by an international bank and also an International Clearing House to oversee export and import of each country.
India Needs to Treat Its Foreign Trade Same as Defense Sector, Part-1
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
A country spends significant amount of money on its defense without thinking about any monetary benefit from defense sector. For an example when India buys an aircraft carrier or dozens of fighter aircrafts, it does not get any monetary benefit out of them. In this two-part article, we will see that a country like India needs to treat the increasing negative Balance on Current Account same as it does with the defense sector. Balance on Current Account is defined as the sum of the balance of trade (goods and services exports less imports), net income from abroad and net current transfers.
