India Needs to Treat Its Foreign Trade Same as Defense Sector, Part-2
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Instead of becoming an exporting country like China, India is becoming an importing country like the US. In 2004, India trade deficit was in upper $20s billion whereas in 2015 it was $137 billion. On the other hand, China’s trade surplus was $177.5 billion in 2006, $298.1 billion in 2008, $160.0 billion in 2011, $382.46 billion in 2014 and $602 billion in 2015. Due to $100+ a barrel crude oil price, the current account deficit of India was $78 billion and $88 billion in 2011 and 2012, respectively. The trade deficit for these two years were $162 billion and $200 billion, respectively. Due to drastic reduction in crude oil price in last couple of years, the trade deficit has gone down somewhat.
Islamic Militancy, Islamic Empire and Modernization of Islam
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- Parent Category: Islam
Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Until the early 1900s, nobody was predicting that democracy would replace kingdoms in most of Western Europe, or that African and Asian countries would gain independence within five to six decades. World Wars I and II were necessary to change global socio-economic and political environments of those times. Had those wars not occurred, much of Europe might still be ruled by monarchs, and most Asian and African countries might still be awaiting independence from their colonial masters. Today Islamic civilization is going through what Europe went through between World Wars I and II. At the end of this crisis, the majority of Islamic nations will become secular and democratic, like Turkey: the world seat of the Islamic Caliphate since 1517, Turkey shed its fundamentalist rule in 1923 and has remained free ever since. In addition to undergoing secularization, Muslims worldwide will start to follow the spiritual aspects of Islam more than its social and militant aspects and Sharia.
Is Muslims' Demand of only Civil Code of Sharia in Non-Muslim Majority Countries Justified?
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
(This is reply to an Indian Muslim who wrote to Dr Kumar that India should continue to have religion-based civil code).
Yes, you have a valid point about common code, i.e. there should be religious freedom. But why do you stop at choosing only civil code and not criminal aspect of Muslim code? If the court convicts a person, he will go to prison if he is a non-Muslim (Hindu, Christian, Parsi or Sikh), but if he is a Muslim, his limbs (hand/leg) will be cut off, eye put out or death by stoning according your Sharia law. Why do not you ask for this in India, i.e. criminal aspect of Muslim code? You can not choose what you like in your religion and discard what you do not like.
Why Pakistan Has Become the Epicenter of Islamic Terrorism
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Pakistan was created by Muslim leaders like Muhammad Ali Jinnah and Liaquat Ali Khan who were originally from Hindu majority states in undivided India. Once these top leaders were gone (Jinnah died in 1948, Khan was assassinated in 1951), Pakistan became leaderless politically and the Pakistani army generals took over the country. The US supported these dictators and hence democracy could not take deep roots there. In all wars it has fought, the United States claims to be fighting for freedom and democracy. However, in all its Cold War battles it did not hesitate to deal repeatedly with military dictators instead of democratically elected leaders as they tend inevitably towards a socialist or participatory style of government. After the end of the Cold War, almost all countries are leading towards the path of peaceful democratic states, barring a few such as Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Rise of China due to Reaganomics—A Treason
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Reaganomics is the biggest fraud created in the history of the United States. Not only did it create large debts, it also transferred money from the middle class to the richest 2 percent. Without the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement, which made the US dollar the global currency, Reaganomics would have died in its infancy. Reaganomics was paid for initially by Japan during the 1980s to the early 1990s, and thereafter mainly by China, which is a potential enemy of the United States. In a similar situation, when the Soviets needed money for their “glasnost” (freedom of speech, transparency in government) and “perestroika” (reconstruction of the economy, economic reforms) campaigns during the late 1980s, German banks stopped giving loans and instead started demanding repayments, causing the Soviet economy to collapse.
Trade Deficit - Reason For The Present Global Economic Crisis
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
One common factor for all Western countries in crisis is that they had significant trade deficits during the last ten years. These countries have two type of deficits - budget and trade deficits. Until 6-7 years ago, all Euro countries had similar budget deficits. But in last 6-7 years, the countries in crisis are facing trade deficits as well as significant budget deficits. Domestic and foreign banks operating in these countries invested heavily in non-productive sectors. These banks invest to get maximum return and get it in risky markets -- trading, finance, and real estate. Following such types of investments the economies of these countries boomed, keeping budget deficits in check. After the 2008 Great Recession nearly all the Western countries suffered from the effects of the collapse in real estate which caused an increase in budget deficits, but the countries in crisis (for an example, US and PIIGS in Europe) are affected the most (due to losses of jobs and of revenue collection). Due to pressure from the IMF, countries are now being forced to pay foreign investors who made loans to private sector operators and this is causing a further increase in budget deficits.
Human Brain - Beyond Any Man-Made Computer
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(From Dr. Susmit Kumar’s new book Karma, Mind, and Quest for Happiness iUniverse, 2012)
The brain is the center of the nervous system in all vertebrate, and most invertebrate, animals, including humans. For an example, humpback whales, great apes (like chimps and orangutans) and dolphins have "human" brain cells and they can think.[1] Like humans, chimps and orangutans too plan for the future.[2] Birds can distinguish our languages. [3] Human brain, weighing on average about three pounds, is an extremely complex structure that has evolved over millions of years. The difference between a human brain and the brains of other creatures is that the human brain has several capabilities that others do not have. Ours is the most advanced brain of all. According to David Linden, a professor of neuroscience at Johns Hopkins University: "Just as the mouse brain is a lizard brain with some extra stuff thrown on top, the human brain is essentially a mouse brain with extra toppings."[4]This is one of the proofs that which establishes Darwin’s theory of evolution: Humans have evolved from animals.
Collapse of Indian Currency (Rupee)
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Note: This article is from my book "Casino Capitalism" published early this year. I have written the same, i.e. collapse of Indian currency, in my 2010 article at this blog, titled "Stop Blaming China – It is the Structural Failure of the Global Trade System" (please see the last paragraph).
In 1991, India had to go to the IMF to get a loan because its FOREX was worth only three weeks of essential imports, and India was on the verge of default. One of the main reasons for this economic crisis was imports of luxury items during the late 1980s under the Rajiv Gandhi administration. India had to airlift sixty-seven tons of its gold reserves to London as collateral in order to get $2.2 billion from the IMF. In addition, India had to liberalize its economy and sell several of its profit-making public firms at throwaway prices to US firms such as Enron.
How much are you paying to commodity speculators?
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Due to the rise in investments in commodity markets, the global prices of commodities such as gas, corn, wheat, rice, and potatoes are going through the roof. These prices are not determined by demand and supply but by investors, who in almost all cases do not take physical possession of these commodities, except maybe precious metals, at all. In mid-2011, the gold price was up by 40 percent from a year earlier. This tremendous rise in gold price is not because of a sudden increase in the number of users of gold or a sudden drop in supply. The rise of price is due to investors. The same is true for the steep rises in consumer items such as gas, wheat, onions, corn, and potatoes.
Wall Street Leans on Its Adversary the Government
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
The rich people are not getting richer on their own, but with the help of government. The people on Wall Street are making hundreds of millions of dollars in bonuses while helping rich people to become ultra-rich who invest in Wall Street hedge funds. Due to government deregulations, the people in Wall Street have been making this much money using special (financial) instruments like Credit Default Swap or CDS, Short Selling, Derivatives, Options, Futures, Forward Contracts, participation of financial firms in commodity market, etc. These activities have no social value at all. They are not contributing anything to the general economy except, of course, that they increase the GDP of the nation, distorting the distribution of wealth. The government has authority to revoke or regulate these financial instruments.
Limited Government, Limited Mentality
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
For the last three decades, conservatives, especially Republicans, have been demonizing the government. But the truth is that the average citizen receives more services from the government than he or she gets from any of the Fortune top 50 firms. The government provides infrastructures (like roads and bridges), Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, services after natural calamities (like hurricane, flood and tornado) and defense. The main driving force of any corporation is to generate profit. So why don’t the people on Capital Hill work to increase government revenue by increasing its income rather than giving tax-cuts to the rich? One point worth noting is that the rich people are not getting richer on their own, but with the help of government.
Krugman’s Third Depression or Collapse like 1990s Russia?
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
According to Paul Krugman, the economy is in the early stages of a third depression and it will probably look more like the Long Depression of the 19th Century that followed the Panic of 1873 than the much more severe 1930’s Great Depression. According to him, the cost – to the world economy and, above all, to the millions of lives blighted by the absence of jobs – will nonetheless be immense.
What we are witnessing is not the early stages of third depression. Instead it is the initial stages of economic collapse like 1990s Russian economy as predicted in my book Modernization of Islam (Booksurge, Jan. 2008). It took me 4+ years to write this book and I wrote the chapter “The Collapse of the American Economy” in this book in the early 2007. It is worth noting that Russian GDP decreasing by 45 percent during 1990s.
Dr Kumar on Sudarshan News TV on Oct 24, 2016
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Stop Blaming China – It is the Structural Failure of the Global Trade System
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
In the U.S. more than eight millions are unemployed, with no relief in sight. Now economists have started predicting another recession. Political leaders and several economists, including Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman, are blaming China for the economic condition. We need to stop blaming China. Instead we should accept the inevitable: The collapse of the global trade system (Please see chart).
Wall Street Takes the Juice Out of Fruit (General Economy)
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
More than eight millions are unemployed in the U.S. today, with little relief in sight. On the other hand, the people on Wall Street are again making hundreds of millions of dollars as if nothing has happened. If you follow the money trail, you will find that most of this money is coming out of the pocket of common people. When you squeeze the juice out of a fruit, then what remains in the fruit? That’s what the hedge funds/Wall Street have done with the US and the global economy.
Dr Kumar on Sudarshan News TV on Oct 26, 2016
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Dr Kumar on Sudarshan News TV on Feb 15, 2017
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Reaganomics – A Bogus Economics Paid by China and Japan
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Had Japan and China not financed Reaganomics, i.e. the U.S. debt, the economy, i.e. capitalism, would have collapsed before the collapse of Communism.
Reaganomics stands for limited government spending, deregulation of economy and reduced tax. Tea party activities and people like Ron Paul have similar ideas. These ideas are nothing but bogus economics (please see charts and tables below). For the economic boom during 1990s and 2000s (until 2008 economic downturn), conservatives are giving credit to Reaganomics. The truth is that due to the Reaganomics the country started to accumulate debt, which was first financed by Japan and then China (Please see the data in charts and tables). Now the debt has become unsustainable and an equivalent to terminal cancer.
Dr Kumar on Sudarshan News TV on Jan 24, 2017
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Nikkei, Dow 4000, 401K and Small Government
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
Nikkei average went up to about 39,000 in December 1989, but after the crash it hovered around 15,000 during the lost decade of 1990s. In the last several years it has hovered around 10,000. Several economists, including Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman, are fearing a similar lost decade for the U.S. economy, too, which would cause Dow Jones to hover around 4,000, leading 401K to become 101K. As a majority of firms have stopped pension options, the future for the entire country seems very bleak, especially because of the unsustainable debt of the government.
Dr Kumar on Sudarshan News TV on Oct 15, 2016
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Can the Obama Administration Cure the Terminal Cancer Created by Reagan and Bush?
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
If a doctor prescribes you a wrong medicine which furthers deadly cancer, then it will take a lot of money (more than you spent initially and paid to the first doctor) as well as time to cure it. In the name of limited government and deregulation of economy the bogus theory of Reaganomics, especially under the recent Bush administration, have destroyed the U.S. economy to an extent that may be likened to a person having deadly cancer that can not be solved even in 5 to 10 years; it may even take a generation. Please see the below tables and my article (Reaganomics – A Bogus Economics Paid by China and Japan )
Dr Kumar on Sudarshan News TV on Oct 16, 2016
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The Global Economy Desperately Needs Another Brilliant Keynes Idea
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Susmit Kumar, Ph.D.
It is better to negotiate some kind of tax on both trade surplus and trade deficit as proposed by Keynes when debts are manageable, otherwise China is going to rule the global economy.
Before the 1930s Great Depression, there were recessions in 1797-1800, 1807-1814, 1819-24, 1837-43, 1857-60, 1873-79, 1893-96, 1907-8 and 1918-21. The government did not intervene in any of these previous economic recessions and opted to let the economy find its own solution. Until 1930s Great Depression, economists thought that free markets would automatically provide full employment on their own without the intervention of government.
Dr Kumar on Sudarshan News TV on March 1, 2017
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